IET
Decrease font size
Increase font size
Topic Title: electric cars
Topic Summary: just on the news breaking...ban of diesel and petrol by 2040
Created On: 26 July 2017 01:36 PM
Status: Read Only
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch
1 2 3 Next Last unread
Search Topic Search Topic
Topic Tools Topic Tools
View similar topics View similar topics
View topic in raw text format. Print this topic.
 26 July 2017 01:36 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



psychicwarrior

Posts: 683
Joined: 18 October 2010

don't you just love ideals and utopia, especially if they make a lot/total sense.

i'd like to see the ban of capitalism and the sustained feudal state that has existed for aeons and move towards a different social system for a 'better future', but its an unachievable ideal in most folks eyes and in any case...how do you get there fairly and equitably for all if powerful, vested interests abound. Any way, I digress.

Back to the breaking headline - how can this be supported infrastructure wise.... its not new because many have already commented on this subject based on what's been on the go....but now its serious [arguably]

- massive, I mean massive increase in charging provisions both at home and 'charging garages' up and down the country

e.g. currently you pull up in a car, fill up and gone in '60 seconds' - not so charging a car I suspect....a lot of cars can fizz through a petrol station in short order

- not sure how much money is made each year by the oil petrol industry, or what proportion is from motoring fuel - either way, will 'charging prices' rise to maintain the same level of executive salaries and share-holder dividends

- will electric prices rise even further, or come down

- is there enough available electric production

- what is the infrastructure plan or assessment requirements for a change like this

- why just cars, why not *every vehicle*

- what is the expected 'pollution' contribution from a massive increase in battery production and what is expected to be in place to handle that

- will electric car prices come down (one would think so, but errrmmm)

- are 'they' consulting with the knowledgeable in the electric industry and who are those people...

I'm sure there is much much more to all this in terms of questions and issues and I bet there is very little in terms of sound plans. Anyone can some up with a strap line that is totally sensible - but on complex issues like this, it is the lack of detail of how to get there that inevitably ends up in a 'make it up as it creeps along' which causes all sorts of issues and casualties along the way.

So Mr/Mrs Government - what are your well thought plans, or is it I;ve got a good idea and i'll let you all deal with the chaos....anyway the 'market' will control it.

It's a great idea and at some level makes sense....can't wait to see how it pans out and to watch a new 'cash cow' emerge around this every growing 'green' push to a new cleaner future... la de daa


Well, calm down dear...its only an advert :-)


PS: apologies, this should have been in a general chat forum I fear.
 26 July 2017 02:41 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



MWalker86

Posts: 101
Joined: 05 June 2017

Well yes it's a huge infrastructure challenge. But we faced essentially the same thing when introducing the infrastructure needed to make petrol cars a viable solution.

If the economics carry on supporting it, IE fossil fuels keep rising in price and electricity keeps coming down then it's an inevitability as sure as the demise of the horse and carriage.
 26 July 2017 03:05 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



psychicwarrior

Posts: 683
Joined: 18 October 2010

I feel in my bones that its a bit more challenging than the move from 'horse and cart to petrol'. :-) In any case everything is achievable some would say....hmmm
 26 July 2017 03:05 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



geoffsd

Posts: 2342
Joined: 15 June 2010

Originally posted by: MWalker86

Well yes it's a huge infrastructure challenge. But we faced essentially the same thing when introducing the infrastructure needed to make petrol cars a viable solution.

All they needed was a tank.
It was and still is delivered by lorry - to anywhere.

and electricity keeps coming down

Where do you live?

That certainly won't be the case if demand outstrips supply.
 26 July 2017 03:20 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



MWalker86

Posts: 101
Joined: 05 June 2017

Originally posted by: geoffsd
Originally posted by: MWalker86 Well yes it's a huge infrastructure challenge. But we faced essentially the same thing when introducing the infrastructure needed to make petrol cars a viable solution.
All they needed was a tank. It was and still is delivered by lorry - to anywhere.


And all they need here is a battery! See I can do over simplification too.

It is anyway an inherently inefficient system, where every time you want to move some energy from A-B you have to expend energy on literally carrying it there whilst paying a guy to do it.

Not the same with transmission of electricity, once you have paid to put the infrastructure up you can send as much energy down it as you want (within reason obviously) and the maintenance costs are fixed.


and electricity keeps coming down


Where do you live?



That certainly won't be the case if demand outstrips supply.


Fossil fuels are a finite resource, electricity is not. So sooner or later the supply of one is going to be a lot greater than the other.
 26 July 2017 03:28 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



davezawadi

Posts: 4259
Joined: 26 June 2002

Electric car changing would need the generating capacity to be increased by 30 - 50%, but let us assume the best case of 20GW, 30%. This would charge about 6 million cars at the standard rate, or perhaps 1 million Teslas at the quick (1 hour) rate. We are building Hinkley C to generate about 2GW, and many gas turbine CCGT plants to cover the deficit present now. Note that these use gas and produce both CO2 and NOx, although this is not usually mentioned. Other sources of NOx are space heating, and other types of fuel burning at high temperatures, such as steel making, and lightning (probably 1500 tonnes last week). The usual answer that we can use solar / wind is completely untrue, because we cannot store energy when they are unavailable. Unless you controlled charge times and quantities to a low level, and found a way to tax at different rates, the treasury would loose £20 billion per year in fuel tax, need huge new power stations (green) and have to fund new infrastructure of the grid and electricity distribution to every road with houses. All immensely expensive!

Batteries are suggested as providing such storage, but this is also untrue in bulk because they are inherently very dangerous, as is any concentrated source of energy. A 1GWhr battery contains 15,000,000,000,000J (15 trillion joules), comparable to the power of an atom bomb and similarly damaging should it explode! It is roughly equivalent to 600,000 litres of diesel fuel or 1000 tonnes of TNT. The pumped storage scheme in Wales is also roughly equivalent, and to depend on it in any reliable way we would need at least 5 days of storage of the wind maximum capacity plus some of the solar in case of bad weather, lets assume at least 200GWhr. This would mean flooding most of upland Wales to provide additional storage, and many more pumps / turbines to move the water and produce power when required. The process is also quite inefficient, needing even more windmills and solar panels!

Anyone any good answers to these, and then there are trucks and buses and trains and ships and space heating and industrial processes (steel making) and.......?

-------------------------
David
BSc CEng MIET


Edited: 26 July 2017 at 03:39 PM by davezawadi
 26 July 2017 03:32 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



geoffsd

Posts: 2342
Joined: 15 June 2010

No, I meant the filling stations only needed a tank to be a filling station.

"So sooner or later the supply of one is going to be a lot greater than the other."
One what?

When everyone has an EV and wants scarce electricity, it WILL NOT be cheap.
 26 July 2017 03:42 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



MWalker86

Posts: 101
Joined: 05 June 2017

Yeah and neither will petrol be if there isn't any left in the ground.

I suspect anything where we really need to stick with something like diesel will be replaced by bio-fuels. Light vehicles will switch to a small battery capable of covering short journeys because that's what most people need them for.

I'm sure there will be great technical challenges, but my thought is it's absolutely inevitable, sooner or later, it is going to happen regardless of all the numbers you want to quote, there is simply no other way and people will make it happen.

Somebody bump this thread every 10 years or so and we'll see what's happened.
 26 July 2017 04:29 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



davezawadi

Posts: 4259
Joined: 26 June 2002

I assume this biofuel idea does not include the tractors to grow it? Perhaps it does in which case we are doomed.

-------------------------
David
BSc CEng MIET
 26 July 2017 04:57 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



rocknroll

Posts: 9677
Joined: 03 October 2005

Back to the breaking headline - how can this be supported infrastructure wise.... its not new because many have already commented on this subject based on what's been on the go....but now its serious [arguably]


I am afraid you missed something a couple of months back where various documents were leaked showing that EM drives are likely to be the way forward so there realistically may not be a strain on the infrastructure after all, at first it seemed impossible that EM drives could support terrestrial vehicles but an interesting statement was made that could see the future, the question has always been "can the EM drive produce enough thrust for terrestrial applications?", the hidden answer was yes, the second generation engines will be capable of producing a specific thrust of 30kN/kW. Thus for 1 kilowatt (typical of the power in a microwave oven) a static thrust of 3 tonnes can be obtained, which is enough to support a large car. This is clearly adequate for terrestrial transport applications.

Where we are at the moment is the EM drive can easily counter gravity upwards or along a plane without losing kinetic energy but some form of propulsion will still be required to produce the kinetic energy to accelerate the vehicle, probably batteries but nowhere near the size of what is needed in a present electric vehicle, charging could probably be achieved using the EM drive.

So you may be panicking for nothing, the future is here.

Regards

-------------------------
"Take nothing but a picture,
leave nothing but footprints!"
-------------------------
"Oh! The drama of it all."
-------------------------
"You can throw all the philosophy you like at the problem, but at the end of the day it's just basic electrical theory!"
-------------------------

Edited: 26 July 2017 at 06:27 PM by rocknroll
 26 July 2017 07:00 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



mapj1

Posts: 12039
Joined: 22 July 2004

I think someone fell asleep while watching Star Trek or Dr Who, and woke up with a seemingly marvellous idea.
We need to remember also how long the horse to car transition took, and it was a lot more than 20 years, more like 50 boosted by the 20 years of progress you get in 5 years when you go to war. Very few individuals had a car until the 1950s, by which time the technology had been fully debugged..
If yuo want an idea of cars on road verus year, it is quite fun to reverse process the govt tables on cars registered to see how few were on the road until about 1960, when it really took off.
Sadly not in an easy to digest form, but in table 124 for example by doing column totals per year back to about 1900.

-------------------------
regards Mike
 26 July 2017 08:03 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



MWalker86

Posts: 101
Joined: 05 June 2017

Well technology tends to advance at an exponential rate and we are already a good 30 years at least into electric cars.

Call me a doe eyed dreamer if you like but history doesn't remember the people who said 'You'll never get that thing into space.'
 26 July 2017 08:56 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



hertzal123

Posts: 503
Joined: 26 August 2007

Read somewhere recently that its possible to drain the " discharged "
electrolyte from electric vehicles and replace with "charged" fluid.If true, this could overcome the long down time at filling stations or dwellings.
Regards,Hz.
 26 July 2017 09:17 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



psychicwarrior

Posts: 683
Joined: 18 October 2010

maybe the idea will/should be that cars will be leased (on a day, week, month, year basis) from a large local area car pool(s) - owned by [put your money bags monopoly piece here] - rather than personally owned (i read somewhere that batteries in them will only every be leased). Either way this is really is going to be a challenge and I suspect that a serious reduction in personal ownership of vehicles will be a necessity running along side all this move to electric stuff.

i did laugh at the thought that a family member's household has 4 cars at the moment parked outside...imagine the setup just at the house....leads spidering out all over the place.....then what about the folks that live on terrace streets. Where I am I can see now 3 streets, with the whole road full of cars outside (both sides)....... wash a repeat all over the place...hehehe eee it's grand.
 26 July 2017 11:38 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



mapj1

Posts: 12039
Joined: 22 July 2004

we have had electric vehicles since before the internal combustion engine, but its not just the time something has been around per-se but how stable the development is.
Computing technology seems to advance exponentially, but very few natural world things do, things like how many people you can feed from an acre of land, which has risen, depending how far back you look, or physical things the strength of steel alloys, or the capacity per kilo of batteries, yes again both have risen compared to 20 years ago, but nothing like exponentially
There have been a few key developments that make electric vehicles a bit more practical than 100 years ago, such as electronics that allows brushless motors and regeneration during braking, and of course, batteries, but not to the extent that is really needed to be better than petrol. More available than petrol, perhaps, but market forces will sor that out, by pushing fuel costs, rather than legislatilon.

Reading a 1960 cub annual the other day (present from someone who knows my involvement and thought I may be interested) some 'things you will see when you grow up' are fun reading.
Free electricity from nuclear has not yet happened, nor has the personal heicopter as the standard means of commmuting, just because things sound good, does not make them happen.
And when did anyone last step on the moon? I'd say as a society, we have more or less lost the ability to do that sort of thing, after perhaps one more generation, all the folk who remember how to do it will all be long retired or even dead.
The direction of progress is only forwards if people push it that way.

-------------------------
regards Mike
 27 July 2017 12:42 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



ebee

Posts: 6735
Joined: 02 December 2004

the last electric car I drove had a big stick on the back with some springy metal on the end and you and your one passenger drove towards a similar set up and cause them to bump.
eeh such fun

-------------------------
Regards,
Ebee (M I S P N)

Knotted cables cause Lumpy Lektrik
 27 July 2017 09:30 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



davezawadi

Posts: 4259
Joined: 26 June 2002

Latest news!
I heard a man from KPMG (probably advising someone in the Government) saying that the load to charge all the cars was only 4GW! So my calculation is as follows:
20 million cars charged at 1kW for 24 hours a day = 20GW. Average value some slower, some quicker.
24 kWhr is approximately equivalent to burning 4 litres of diesel with 40% efficiency.
Most of us use more than 28 litres of fuel per week so my figure seems an under estimate.
Therefore we need 20GW more generating capacity average at all times, and just using night time "spare capacity" would need 60 GW for 8 hours, answer "Oh dear!". Daytime charging would have to be banned I'm afraid making any reasonable journey about as slow as a horse and cart. I can only imagine that somehow 90% of people will not be allowed a car anymore.
Next point, batteries.
Lots of people think that we can improve batteries significantly. There are two problems, basic chemistry and cycle life. The chemistry is limited by the activity of the element used in the battery. We already use lithium, the most active available element except hydrogen, so unless someone can make a gas mode battery this is a bit of a dead end. You could perhaps look at fuel cells instead, but these are very sensitive to impure hydrogen and comparatively expensive. Getting the hydrogen would need large scale electrolysis, which is not very efficient. Cycle life tends to get worse as the battery chemicals are more active, and there is a smaller quantity of them. Lithium cells may get to 1000 cycles with 30% loss of capacity of full cycles, but my phone one does not, and rarely gets much below half charge. It is the bottom end that really suffers.
Friends of the Earth claimed that we had 25% solar on the best day this year for some reason, one sunny hour does not make a practical transport system even if true, which I doubt.
When electric trucks were mentioned there was an evasiveness which was very illuminating! An HGV would need a 2.5MWhr battery to be any good at all.
Now back to the good old reliable diesel van!
Please argue with the numbers, that's why I put them there because we need to work with facts not fancies.

-------------------------
David
BSc CEng MIET
 27 July 2017 09:51 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



mapj1

Posts: 12039
Joined: 22 July 2004

Coming at it another way - early adopters win financially, but the kVA figures are not good for the grid.

Leaf 24kWh battery capacity assume charge at @ 12p per kWh so £3 for full charge Leaf range 80 miles call it 4p per mile (ish)

Light user
8k miles a year (20 miles per day, so 6kWh of charge per night ?)
Annual petrol cost ~ £1,400 ?
Annual re- charging costs ~£300

Commuter - longest sensible range on that battery to avoid mid journey re-charge when 80 mile range reduces a bit..
20k miles a year (bit like 50 miles per day, so 20 kWh of charge per night ?) similar if assuming not driving weekends, but 80 miles 5 days week
Annual petrol cost: ~£4000
Annual re-charging cost: ~£900

-------------------------
regards Mike
 27 July 2017 02:13 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



davezawadi

Posts: 4259
Joined: 26 June 2002

A leaf using only 6kWh per day to do 20 miles. That's only 0.4 hp hours per mile, so I hope none of it is up hill. That is not a realistic number, otherwise we could get away with 5BHP cars, Do you remember those Mike, I rather doubt it? I assume the number comes from a constant 20MPH along a nice smooth flat road with no other traffic. If that is what is claimed I would like to see them prove it on the average city commute with everyone else trying to do 40! The same vehicle would probably be able to do at least 120 MPG on petrol, so the cost is not that much less is it, we must be very careful not to compare apples and pears. 6kWh is about the energy in 1 litre of petrol burnt in a modern engine so if we forget the tax petrol is cheaper. BTW my electricity is more like 16p / unit. They will have to tax electricity somehow to raise £20 billion at least from electric cars.

-------------------------
David
BSc CEng MIET
 27 July 2017 02:53 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message



geoffsd

Posts: 2342
Joined: 15 June 2010

"They will have to tax electricity somehow to raise £20 billion at least from electric cars."

Smart meters
IET » Wiring and the regulations » electric cars

1 2 3 Next Last unread
Topic Tools Topic Tools
Statistics

New here?

  • To participate in discussions, please log in and introduce yourself.

See Also:



FuseTalk Standard Edition v3.2 - © 1999-2019 FuseTalk Inc. All rights reserved.

 
..